As we have been progressing through the season, we have occasionally posted the remaining scenarios that will allow South Carolina to advance to the SEC Championship game in Atlanta. Today, we are putting some odds with those scenarios. To do this, we need to rely on the work of two of the more celebrated minds in College Football prognostication, Jeff Sagarin and Phil Steele.
A little more than a year ago, Phil Steele wrote an article explaining the correlation between Las Vegas betting lines and acutal wins. That article is here. Not surprisingly, his research found that the more a team was favored, the more they were likely to win. He went a step further and provided the percentages. For instance, if a team is favored by 14.5 to 17 points, history (1996-2008) shows that the favorite wins 86.5% of the time. Using this research, we can set odds of South Carolina winning their last three conference games.
In order to do the predictions, we need to know the lines, which usually aren’t available until the week of the game. This is where Jeff Sagarin’s work comes in. For years Sagarin has compiled several sets of computer rankings of the teams in college football. His rankings are on USAToday’s website here, and he explains that “[t]o make predictions for upcoming games… compare the RATINGS of the teams in questions and allow… points for the home team.” Using the Sagarin ratings, we can approximate lines and run our percentages.
Here are the calculations for determining the lines and the historical expected win percentage associated with it:
| Tennessee | Arkansas | Florida | |
| USC Rating | 82.51 | 82.51 | 82.51 |
| – Opponent Rating | 65.81 | 82.11 | 78.00 |
| (preliminary line) | 16.70 | 0.40 | 4.51 |
| +/- Home Field | +2.95 | +2.95 | -2.95 |
| Projected Line | 19.65 | 3.35 | 1.56 |
| SC Win %age | 93% | 51.1% | 51.1% |
According to these current Sagarin numbers, which will change after each week’s games, South Carolina will be favored to win all three of its final conference games. According to Phil Steele’s research, history gives us an idea of the percentage of times we can expect to win those games based on the projected spread.
There are three games left, with two possible outcomes for each one (win or lose), so there are eight total scenarios for the Gamecocks. Here is the likelihood of each happening and its implication on the SEC East race.
The chart is written such that a bolded opponent indicates a SC win, a regular one means a SC loss.
| Scenario | Likelihood | Atlanta? |
| TN AR FL | 24.28% | SC wins East |
| TN AR FL | 23.24% | Need help |
| TN AR FL | 23.24% | SC wins East |
| TN AR FL | 22.24% | Need miracle |
| TN AR FL | 1.83% | SC wins East |
| TN AR FL | 1.75% | Need miracle |
| TN AR FL | 1.75% | Need help |
| TN AR FL | 1.67% | Not a chance |
In short, there is a 49.55 % chance South Carolina wins the East regardless of what anyone else does. When you factor in the probability that other teams could help USC, the odds go up dramatically. For instance if Georgia beats Florida, the odds go up to at least 72.79%.
Stick with leftoverhotdog.com for updates as the games unfold on the remaining scenarios and the odds of each happening.
And, in case you were curious, Sagarin would have South Carolina as a favorite against both Troy (-22.12) and Clemson (-4.25).
