The USC Gamecocks will head to Hoover, Alabama, for the Southeastern Conference Tournament for the 14th consecutive season when the Gamecocks play the Ole Miss Rebels at Regions Park. The double-elimination event begins on Wednesday and runs through Sunday. The sixth-seeded Rebels will face third-seed South Carolina in the second game of the day on Wednesday, beginning approximately 30 minutes following the conclusions of the day’s first game between second-seeded Auburn and seventh-seeded Alabama at 9:30 a.m.
The two teams know each other, as Ole Miss (36-20) and South Carolina (43-13, 21-9) have faced off a total of 47 times with the ‘Cocks leading the series 29-18 overall. This season, the Rebels fell to the Gamecocks 2-1 in Columbia. Ole Miss and South Carolina have faced-off twice in the SEC Tournament, splitting the two games. The Rebels won the first game in 1999 by a score of 2-0. USC won the second game 7-6 in 10 innings in 2004 (’04 was the last year USC won the title).
South Carolina will start sophomore LHP Nolan Belcher (3-0, 2.03 ERA) with Ole Miss countering with junior LHP Drew Pomeranz (7-2, 2.39 ERA). Pomeranz leads the league in strikeouts (127), earned run average (2.39) and is first in the league in opposing batting average (.189). WIth one more strikeout he will break the school record for strikeouts. For USC’s SP Belcher he pitched a shut out last season against the Rebels. Nolan, a southpaw, has struck out 29 and walked 16 in 26.0 innings.
As you can see this will be yet again a classic SEC baseball match-up. It will come down the usual – timely hitting and quality pitching. Ole Miss is throwing their best at USC with Pomeranz who had the Gamecocks hitless until the 6th a few weeks back. This game will be much in the same vein. Meaning USC has to get past Pomeranz and get to the Rebels bullpen while limiting any Ole Miss threat.
Three keys for a USC win
1. USC SP pitching must be near perfect — Heading into the SEC Tournament, the Gamecock pitching staff leads the Southeastern Conference in opposing batting average (.230), hits allowed (425), tied for first in runs allowed (240) and is second in earned run average (2.69) and strikeouts (498). Belcher in his last outing was very good and needs to do it again.
2. USC’s Bullpen must hold and not shoot themselves in the foot — The boys out of the bullpen must be stellar. I look to Price, Roth, Neff and Mata to be super duber. Matt Price, Gamecocks closer, is 3-0 with a 2.84 ERA and has seven saves in 38.0 innings pitched with 57 strikeouts and 15 walks. Oppnents are batting just .184 against him on the year. The others are just as strong. Look at these stats and you will see whay getting the lead and holding on to the lead is crucial…..Carolina holds a 35-1 advantage when owning a lead entering the seventh inning and 6-2 when the game is tied heading into the seventh.
3. USC’s bats must be hot early and often — I want to see SC score first. As noted they must eliminate the Pomeranz factor and get past him. As a team, the Gamecocks are batting .303 on the year and must get production from their “big bats.” SC is led by Jackie Bradley Jr. with a .364 average. Whit Merrifield leads the team with 12 home runs, Merrifield is now batting .330 (77-for-233) on the year and 36 RBI on the year. He leads the SEC with 65 runs. Two bats that must be strong to help the entire team get this win – Adrian Morales, holds a team-high 45 RBI, and Bobby Haney as he has a 8 game hitting streak going.
I expect a win. I expect a 4-6 run effort from SC while limiting the Rebels to 2-3. I expect a tight game to start but some scoring by the 3rd or 4th. Key gain is getting past Pomeranz, Belcher throwing strikes, SC batting making the most of their chances and SC bullpen keeping it together.
In other news, should Ole Miss be called the Ole Miss Bears?
