This begins our look at the SEC 2012 football season.
Since the “dog days of summer” are upon us and the 2011-12 collegiate athletic season is over, so given the fact that we are some nine weeks from college football it is time to provide some summer reading.
Between now and then I will be doing capsules on the other 13 teams in the conference. In these, the 2011 season for each team will be briefly reviewed and a team by team break down of the schedule will be included along with a couple of keys to the season. Stats and returning starters will come from Phil Steele.
Today we will take a look at the new kid on the block in the SEC, the Missouri Tigers.
Team: Missouri Tigers
Coach: Gary Pinkel (85-54 at Missouri)
Last season: Missouri went 8-5 in 2011 and return 12 starters from that team. The Tigers dropped a close game in overtime in week 2 against Arizona State and lost three (Oklahoma, Kansas State, Oklahoma State) of the next four after trouncing an outmatched Western Illinois team. The Tigers played Heisman winner RGIII close in a 39-42 loss before winning the last four against Texas, Texas Tech, Kansas, and North Carolina in the Independence Bowl (forever known as the Poulan Weedeater Bowl for those who came of age in the mid to late 1990s). Junior quarterback James Franklin (21 TDs and 11 INT in 2011) injured his shoulder during spring practice and is expected to make a full recovery.
Best case / Worst case: 10-2/4-8 If everything breaks right for the Tigers this year, they could win the East crown. If things head south, there aren’t many guaranteed Ws on the ledger. The schedule doesn’t break too badly for the Tigers this year. They open with SE Louisiana and get Georgia at home in week 2. As Spurrier noted, you can count on Georgia to be down a few key starters in early September. This year, UGA appears to be short a couple guys in the back 7 on defense, not a good place to be against a staff that has a history of getting quarterbacks ready to play (Brad Smith, Chase Daniel, and Blaine Gabbert). An electric atmosphere coupled with a short-handed ‘Dawg D could give Mizzou a W in their SEC opener. Week 3 brings Arizona State to town in a rematch of last years over time game.
Breaking it down further…
Following an opening three game home stand, Missouri hits the road for Columbia to take on the Gamecocks. This a game that Missouri COULD win, but with South Carolina’s speed at D end plus a rowdy crowd at Williams Brice welcoming the Tigers to life on the road, this will be a tough game for Missouri to win.
Weeks 5 and 6 see Missouri matching up with UCF and Vanderbilt. Vandy could be tricky, but the Tigers athleticism on offense should be enough to get a W. Alabama is next. Alabama will beat Missouri. Following a long-standing SEC tradition, Kentucky will roll into town on Homecoming weekend and Missouri should be able to take care of business. A two game road swing through Gainesville and Knoxville will further reinforce 1) how tough this conference is on the road and 2) that even the “down” SEC schools are still pretty good. Mizzou may split this roadie, but Will Muschamp has coached against Missouri before and has seen their offense. Expect the Gators to play well on defense. Dooley will most likely be coaching for his job and a healthy Bray in Knoxville could help save it. Pinkel and Co will return home to beat Syracuse before hitting the road to close the season in College Station. The Tigers have beaten the Aggies the last two years and should be able to take advantage of what will be a physically beat up A&M team.
Loses: Alabama, South Carolina
Toss up: Arizona State, Georgia, Vandy, Florida, Tennessee, A&M
Show up and win: SE Louisiana, UCF, Kentucky, Syracuse.
Keys: Pinkel is just 10-27 against top 25 teams at Missouri. That does not bode well for a team taking on the SEC with just 12 returning starters. For Missouri to go bowling, Franklin must remain healthy, and that is anything but a given in the rugged SEC. On the offensive line, Pinkel must replace three multi year starters with only two projected starters weighing over 300 pounds. Missouri’s spread will cause some problems this year, but as we have seen, if you have O line problems in the conference, get ready for a long season.
Look for Missouri to go 7-5 but just 3-5 in conference.
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Bryant Roberts is a life long SEC fan, has 2 autographed pictures of Steve Spurrier, is addicted to BBQ, and a graduate of Presbyterian College. Follow him on twitter here.
