The other day we took a look at South Carolin’s upcoming schedule and ranked the games from easiest to most difficult. Today we take another look at the schedule to see what South Carolina needs to do in order to have the kind of season it wants. In other words, if 9 wins would make a successful season, where are those nine wins going to come from?
We could easily say that 12 wins would make a successful season, but that would be an unrealistic and incomplete look. So, here are my win totals (exclusive of bowl game) and the suggested effect each would have on the program.
| 6 or less | Disaster; Coach Spurrier on the hot seat |
| 7 | Disappointing; Coach Spurrier’s tenure looks shorter |
| 8 | Successful; fans remain patient but not the breakout year some had hoped for |
| 9 | Success; break out year; bigger things to come |
| 10 + | Legendary success; we may have to worry about Spurrier retiring on top |
Of course there are other factors that could make a 7 win season successful or an 8 win season disappointing. If, for instance, all of the losses came at the end of the year, that would damper an otherwise successful season. Likewise, a mediocre season could be salvaged with a win over Clemson.
To break down the schedule, I have divided it up into quarters and will take each one in turn. The number in parentheses indicates how difficult we ranked the game in our previous post. (1 is the hardest, 12 the easiest.)
| 1st Quarter | Southern Miss (10), Georgia (5), Furman (12) |
| 2nd Quarter | @ Auburn (4), Alabama (2), @ Kentucky (8) |
| 3rd Quarter | @ Vanderbilt (9), Tennessee (7), Arkansas (6) |
| 4th Quarter | @ Florida (1), Troy (11), @ Clemson (3) |
Looking at the first quarter, beating Southern Miss and Furman are a must and go without saying. Losing to Georgia doesn’t crush the season or guarantee that it will be unsuccessful, but it makes it more likely the season will end poorly. Beating Georgia has always been considered a barometer for the Gamecocks’ season. Since 2000 USC has had a winning percentage of .639 in seasons when it beats Georgia and .523 in seasons when it doesn’t. This year should be no different. The difference between 2-1 and 3-0 could very well be the difference between a medicore season and a good one.
The second quarter presents opportunities. Alabama is the highest profile team on the schedule and will probably be ranked #1 when they come into town. At this point, it’s safe to assume that the Crimson Tide will win this game, but that is not a foregone conclusion. If the team is playing well, South Carolina has every reason to believe it will be in this game and should have an opportunity to win it. The Kentucky game is as likely to be a win as the Alabama game is to be a loss. For some reason, the Gamecocks have always found a way to beat the Wildcats over the last decade. Unless the season is going horribly wrong, count Kentucky as a win. Auburn, then, is the swing game of the second quarter of the season. Preseason projections are showing the Tigers plenty of respect based on last year’s unexpectedly good season. The hype aside, it’s difficult to project exactly how good they will be, and I believe this game is a true toss up and could be the kind of win that makes for a special season.
The third quarter of the season is an area where the team could pick up some nice wins. Vanderbilt has given USC trouble, winning 2 of the last 3, and could beat the Gamecocks again this year. If that happens, don’t expect more than 6 or 7 wins. In order to be successful, South Carolina has to beat Vanderbilt, and I think they will. Tennessee should be way down from their normal selves. South Carolina should be able to take advantage of that and win the game – fairly easily, in fact, if you listen to some experts. Arkansas is the swing game. They are a popular pick to have a strong season and are very talented on offense. Like the Auburn game, this one is difficult to predict and could probably go either way depending on how the season unfolds.
The last quarter of the season is a time when USC has historically played some of its toughest opponents and fared poorly. Troy was added to that section of the schedule to help soften the difficult stretch. Winning that game is a must and is expected. Beating Florida in the swamp is in the realm of possibility, but not in the realm of probable. If South Carolina wins that game, they may be headed to Atlanta with its season being an unqualified success. Clemson is the toss up game. While the Tigers don’t pose any real match-up problems, going to Death Valley isn’t easy for USC and winning back to back games against them isn’t common. That said, Clemson is a winnable game and is one of the swing games that will affect the season in a big way.
In sum, there are 6 probable wins, 2 probable losses and 4 toss up games that will determine the season. If we assume that South Carolina has a 50% chance of winning each of the toss-ups, then here are the probabilities for the USC season.
| Record | Probability |
| 6-6 | 6.25% |
| 7-5 | 25% |
| 8-4 | 37.25% |
| 9-3 | 25% |
| 10-2 | 6.25% |
Based on my assumptions above it looks like the odds are not quite 70% (68.5%) that South Carolina will win 8 or more games. Most Gamecock fans I know would call that a successful season.
Check back with leftoverhotdog.com for coverage an analysis of these games all season long.
