South Carolina Football: SEC East Scenarios

Following South Carolina’s win over Tennessee and Florida’s win over Georgia, the SEC East race became very simple.  It’s a two team race between South Carolina and Florida.  No other team can win.  With the exception of one unlikely scenario, the winner of the November 13th showdown between the Gamecocks and Gators will be the SEC East’s representative in Atlanta.

Here are the current standings:

Record Games Back
South Carolina 4-2
Florida 3-3 1
Georgia 3-4 1 1/2
Vanderbilt 1-4 2 1/2
Kentucky 1-5 3
Tennessee 0-5 3 1/2

South Carolina can finish no worse than 4-4, so Tennessee and Kentucky with 5 conference losses apiece have been eliminated.  Georgia and Vanderbilt can finish no better than 4-4, but they would lose the tiebreakers under all remaining possible scenarios.

There are three games that will determine the East.  First will be Florida against Vanderbilt.  Second will be South Carolina against Arkansas, and last will be South Carolina against Florida.

The first game to be played will be Florida against Vanderbilt at 12:21 on Saturday.  If, as expected, Florida wins, then the winner of the Florida – South Carolina game will be the East champ.  The South Carolina – Arkansas game won’t affect the East race.

If Vanderbilt beats Florida, the unlikely scenario mentioned above, then everyone’s attention will turn to the Arkansas – South Carolina game.  If South Carolina wins that game, the Gamecocks will be SEC East champs, and the Florida – South Carolina game won’t affect the SEC East outcome.  If South Carolina were to lose to Arkansas, they would get a second shot at the East against Florida.

So, if you’re Florida, it’s simple: win out and you’re in.

If you’re South Carolina, beat Florida and you’re in.  If Florida stumbles against Vanderbilt, then beat Arkansas or Florida, and you’re in.

In all likelihood the November 13th game in Gainesville will be a de facto playoff to advance to Atlanta.

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